It's Supporter Kuuro here.
I'd like to impart a quick knowledge for everyone. I'm often asked how to predict when CM price of an item will rise or plummet. This guide aims to enlighten us a little bit so we can plan ahead.
It's dependent on some factors, not just 1, and there is definitely algorithm behind it.
1. Recent sale price since last price rise/plummet
The base price of an item is displayed. If an item sold above base price, it will contribute to increasing its max price. If an item sold below base price, it will contribute to decreasing its max price. The nearer it is to the edge, the more points it contributes to raising / plummeting the price. After a period of time, the sales are tallied and they all contribute to either the price will go up or go down.
2. How many players recently transacted since last price rise/plummet
Depending on how many players recently transacted, the faster the above mechanic kicks in.
3. How many items sold recently since last price rise/plummet
This is an independent factor than #2. Prices can rise/plummet depending on the amount of goods sold however this has minimal impact if only 1 or 2 players are buying. I've tested this extensively (buying 1 million items min price within 6 hours) and it does not plummet / increase the price of the item while I asked 6 people to buy min of the same item at lower quantity and it plummeted it within 2 hours.
The purpose of this guide is to let us know whether it will be good to PO at the current time or if we can expect the price to further go down. This is especially useful for gear and materials.